- 美國會在 2026 年入侵古巴嗎？3¢3%
Sustained U.S. economic sanctions, including an oil blockade and new targeted measures under executive orders, combined with diplomatic channels that have produced no formal negotiations, have anchored trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Cuba before year-end. Recent rhetoric from administration officials has emphasized regime change through pressure rather than direct military action, even as Cuba conducts defensive exercises and maintains its political system as a non-negotiable red line. The absence of visible troop movements, operational orders, or escalation signals beyond sanctions in the past month reinforces the market's 96.7% implied probability for no invasion. Late developments such as a major incident, unexpected Cuban involvement in other conflicts, or abrupt policy shifts could still alter the trajectory before December 31.
規則
如果美國在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前發動旨在控制古巴任何部分陸地領土的軍事攻勢，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 就本市場而言，在市場建立時由古巴或美國實際控制的土地，將被視為該國的主權領土。 本市場將根據可信來源的共識進行結算。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。