- 菲律賓參議院會裁定 Sara Duterte 有罪嗎？76¢76%
The Philippine Senate impeachment court’s recent decisions have shaped trader assessments of conviction odds for Vice President Sara Duterte. Prosecutors withdrew three of four articles on October 13, narrowing the case to unexplained wealth while asserting that presented evidence on asset disclosures and financial records remains sufficient for removal. Earlier Senate rulings lowered the two-thirds threshold to 14 votes among the roughly 20 participating senator-judges after excluding four absent allies, a change upheld by the Supreme Court. Defense presentation is scheduled to begin November 9, with the trial recessed for budget deliberations. These procedural shifts, combined with the Marcos-aligned majority’s control of the chamber and the permanent disqualification risk tied to any guilty verdict, underpin the current implied probability that conviction will occur before resolution.
規則
如果菲律賓參議院在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前，裁定 Sara Duterte 犯有菲律賓眾議院於 2026 年 5 月通過的任何一項彈劾條款所指控的罪行，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 如果參議院在未裁定 Duterte 有罪的情況下，駁回、發回或以其他方式處置所有相關彈劾條款，本市場可提前判定為有利於「否」。 主要判定依據為菲律賓參議院及菲律賓政府提供的其他官方資訊；但也可採用其他可信報導。
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