- 2028 年民主黨的總統候選人會是女性嗎？30¢30%
Traders assign a 70.5% probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be a man, driven by market pricing that favors several male governors and senators as stronger general-election contenders after the party's 2024 results. Gavin Newsom leads prediction markets near 17%, followed closely by Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Kamala Harris tops early national polls yet receives only single-digit market odds amid questions about her viability. Gretchen Whitmer has signaled she is unlikely to run, and Amy Klobuchar has ruled out a bid, narrowing the pool of prominent female options. The consensus reflects trader assessments of name recognition, fundraising networks, and swing-state appeal among leading male figures rather than current survey preferences.
規則
如果贏得並接受 2028 年民主黨美國總統候選人提名的人是女性，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 此市場的判定依據將是民主黨官方來源的共識。 在選舉日之前更換民主黨提名人，不會改變此市場的判定結果。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。