- 特斯拉會在2026年12月31日之前發布Optimus嗎？4¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Tesla's repeated delays on Optimus production have sharply lowered trader-implied odds for any 2026 release, with the late-July-to-August Fremont start window now passed without confirmed output or a Gen 3 reveal. The company converted its former Model S/X line at Fremont for initial assembly, but early units remain limited to internal "Optimus Academy" training for data collection rather than useful factory tasks or external sales, while Musk has emphasized an "extremely slow" initial ramp due to roughly 10,000 unique components and an undeveloped supply chain. Analysts including JPMorgan now project meaningful external availability only in the second half of 2027, with volume scaling at Giga Texas targeted for summer 2027. The Q3 earnings call in October offers the next key catalyst, though Tesla faces competition from deployed rivals such as Figure AI and Agility Robotics.