- Spider-Man: Brand New Day 會在 2026 年的本土票房達到 $10億 嗎？10¢10%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day, the fourth Tom Holland-led MCU Spider-Man film directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and quickly became the highest-grossing domestic release ever, surpassing Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ $936.6 million mark en route to roughly $958 million as of mid-October. Its theatrical run is now winding down after digital release in early October, with recent weekends contributing only $700k–$1.5 million amid typical late-run drop-offs and screen reductions. Industry tracking and final estimates point to a domestic finish around $960 million—strong enough for multiple records but short of the $1 billion threshold. This performance trajectory, combined with the film’s already-completed theatrical window and limited remaining earnings before year-end, underpins the 77% market-implied probability for “No.” Key swing factors like further re-releases or holdover play appear unlikely given current momentum and competition.
規則
如果《Spider-Man: Brand New Day》的美國國內票房官方總收入在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前超過 $1,000,000,000（十億美元），此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場將以這部電影在 The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) 頁面「Box Office」分頁中列出的「Daily Box Office Performance」數據作為判定依據，待截至指定日期的數值確定後（也就是不再是片商預估值）。 如果無法確定判定來源的數據是否為最終數據，本市場將保持開放，直到 https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ 和 https://www.the-numbers.com/ 均確認其最終數據。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。