- 俄羅斯會在2026年12月31日之前入侵北約國家嗎？3¢3%
NATO officials reported on November 4, 2026, that alliance defense plans now include precision strikes deep inside Russia targeting bases, supply lines, and industrial sites to halt any incursion into member territory. Russian forces continue hybrid operations across Europe, including airspace violations, alleged sabotage of defense firms, and drone activity near NATO borders, while rebuilding equipment stockpiles and infrastructure near the Baltic and Finnish frontiers. Intelligence assessments from Denmark, Germany, and others describe a low but rising risk of limited Russian probes to test Article 5 unity before Russia regains full conventional capacity, projected around 2029 if Ukraine operations persist. Officials including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte state no imminent conventional threat exists, though Baltic states and supply routes remain focal points amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
規則
如果俄羅斯在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前發動軍事攻勢，意圖控制任何一個 NATO 國家的任何部分，本市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 就本市場而言，截至 2025年5月28日 由 NATO 成員國或俄羅斯實際控制的土地，將視為該等國家的主權領土。 由未佩戴識別標誌的人員執行的混合行動或「灰色地帶」行動也符合條件，前提是確認這些人員是俄羅斯特工，且其意圖是在某片領土上建立事實控制，類似於克里米亞（2014 年）或頓巴斯（2014–2022 年）的情況。 本市場將根據可信來源的共識進行結算。
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