- María Corina Machado 會在 10月31日 前進入委內瑞拉嗎？9¢9%
- María Corina Machado 會在 12月31日 前進入委內瑞拉嗎？33¢33%
María Corina Machado remains in exile in Panama after leaving Venezuela in December 2025, with at least seven documented attempts to return by air and sea blocked since then, including multiple efforts in September 2026 via routes through Aruba and Curaçao that faced cancellations and denied permissions. The interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, installed after the U.S. ouster of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, controls entry points and has shown reluctance tied to Machado’s strong polling lead and opposition support. Recent opposition alliance reaffirmation of her leadership on October 18 and calls for protests demanding an election date and her return have not altered access barriers, while U.S.-backed transition talks proceed without her direct role. Traders price a low probability of entry by year-end deadlines due to these repeated institutional and diplomatic constraints, with any shift likely hinging on negotiation outcomes or policy changes in the coming months.
規則
如果 María Corina Machado 在市場建立後至 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 期間造訪 Venezuela，則此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 就本市場而言，「造訪」是指 María Corina Machado 親身進入委內瑞拉的陸地領土。在本市場的時間範圍內，María Corina Machado 是否進入委內瑞拉的空域或海上領土，均不影響正向判定。 此市場結算的主要依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。