- 以色列會在 2026 年重新開設駐伊朗大使館嗎？3¢3%
Persistent military conflict and absence of any bilateral diplomatic channel explain traders' near-certainty that Israel will not reopen an embassy in Iran before year-end. Direct relations have not existed since 1979, and 2026 saw U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February, Iranian missile and proxy responses, a brief June memorandum of understanding, and renewed Hormuz and nuclear tensions into October. Recent statements from both sides emphasize mutual accusations and demands for guarantees rather than normalization. A realistic shift would require a comprehensive ceasefire, verified de-escalation on nuclear and proxy issues, and high-level agreement—developments that remain absent amid stalled talks and ongoing regional friction.
規則
如果以色列政府在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前宣布重新開放或開設任何駐伊朗大使館或領事館，或此類重新開放或開設以其他方式獲得確認，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 在本市場期限內發布的官方公告，無論之後是否在該期限內實際開設大使館或領事館，都符合判定為「是」的條件。 任何以色列駐伊朗大使館或領事館的開設都符合條件，不論其確切位置為何。 未明確承諾開設大使館或領事館的公告不予計算，例如一般外交聲明、探詢性評論或部分／有條件的措施。 判定依據將是以色列政府的官方聲明；不過，也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
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