- 以色列會在2027年前吞併約旦河西岸領土嗎？3¢3%
Israel’s government has advanced extensive settlement construction, outpost legalization, and administrative measures such as land registration and enforcement authority in Area C, producing de facto control over large portions of the West Bank without formal annexation. Recent cabinet decisions approving dozens of new settlements and related infrastructure reflect coalition priorities, yet formal sovereignty legislation has repeatedly stalled amid U.S. opposition, including explicit statements from the Trump administration against such steps, alongside concerns over diplomatic fallout with Jordan, the EU, and Arab partners. Traders assign 96% probability to no annexation before 2027 because these constraints, combined with the preference for incremental changes ahead of potential 2026 elections, outweigh far-right calls for immediate legal extension of Israeli law. A sudden U.S. policy reversal, major security escalation, or post-election coalition shift could still alter the timeline.
規則
如果 Israel 在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前正式吞併約旦河西岸的任何領土，該市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 吞併是指以色列政府作出的正式聲明或法律行為，主張對約旦河西岸某片領土擁有主權，而該政府在此市場建立時尚未主張對該領土擁有主權。 符合條件的吞併例子包括 1980 年《耶路撒冷法》和《戈蘭高地法》；但若以色列定居者在沒有正式吞併的情況下主張對約旦河西岸土地擁有行政控制權，則不予計入。 此市場的主要判定依據將是以色列政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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