- 格陵蘭會在 2026 年投票支持獨立嗎？1¢1%
Greenland's path to independence remains a gradual, multi-year process under the 2009 Self-Government Act, with no referendum scheduled or prepared for 2026. Recent developments, including the September 2026 trilateral security agreement with the US and Denmark, have reaffirmed Danish sovereignty while preserving Greenland's self-determination rights and linking any future independence to continued NATO membership. A commission examining legal steps is not due to report until early 2027, and economic reliance on Danish block grants—roughly 20 percent of the economy—plus recent parliamentary moves toward resource restrictions continue to favor a measured timeline. Traders' near-certain consensus on no 2026 vote reflects these structural and procedural barriers, though an unexpected coalition shift or sudden economic catalyst could still accelerate the timeline.
規則
如果格陵蘭在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前舉行獨立公投，且公投中過半數投票者投票支持獨立，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 以加入丹麥以外的其他國家為目的所舉行的公投，將視為獨立公投。 本市場的主要結算依據將是格陵蘭和／或丹麥政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。