- George R. R. Martin 會在 2026 年宣布「The Winds of Winter」嗎？7¢7%
Strong trader consensus around a 91.6% implied probability for no announcement of The Winds of Winter in 2026 stems primarily from George R.R. Martin’s extended history of missed deadlines and limited public updates on the manuscript’s completion. With the year more than three-quarters over and no verified signals of a finished draft or imminent reveal, the market reflects skepticism rooted in the author’s documented pattern of prioritizing other projects over the core A Song of Ice and Fire series. Industry observers note Martin’s age and competing commitments continue to slow progress, consistent with past delays that have stretched over a decade. A late-year announcement remains possible if the manuscript reaches a publishable state, though such an outcome would require an abrupt shift from the current trajectory.
規則
如果 George R. R. Martin 在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前公開且明確宣布，A Song of Ice and Fire 的一部作品將以《The Winds of Winter》為名出版，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 宣布創作任何未明確命名為《The Winds of Winter》的外傳或續作（例如 Fire & Blood、A Sworn Sword），不足以使此市場判定為「是」。書名必須包含「The Winds of Winter」字樣，才符合資格。此市場僅關注出版公告。 此市場將根據 George R. R. Martin 的官方資訊或可信來源的共識進行判定。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。