- 法國會在12月31日之前通過國家預算嗎？65¢65%
France’s 2027 budget process remains stalled in a fragmented National Assembly with no stable majority, leaving the 53% market-implied probability of passage by December 31 closely balanced between procedural workarounds and political risk. Persistent divisions over roughly €43–54 billion in deficit-reduction measures—aimed at narrowing the gap from an expected 5.4% of GDP in 2026 to 5% next year—have produced hundreds of rejected or amended provisions, repeated vote postponements, and a revenue-side examination now extending into early November. Traders weigh the government’s constitutional options, including Article 49.3 or post-deadline ordinances after the 70-day window closes around December 17, against the threat of successful no-confidence motions that could collapse the minority administration before year-end. Recent Senate scheduling for November–December and ongoing bond-market scrutiny of French yields add pressure for resolution, yet comparable 2025–26 episodes show budgets often reaching promulgation only via special procedures rather than clean parliamentary votes. Key near-term catalysts include the Assembly’s final first-reading deadline on November 17, Senate deliberations through early December, and any concessions secured ahead of a potential 49.3 invocation.
規則
如果法國議會通過 2027 年國家預算（Loi de Finances pour 2027），且該預算在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 CET（UTC+01:00）或之前刊登於法國官方公報（Journal Officiel），此市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 符合資格的預算必須提供 2027 全年的資金。特別或緊急撥款法案不符合資格。 此市場結算的主要依據將是法國政府的官方資訊，具體而言是法國官方公報（Journal Officiel）（journal-officiel.gouv.fr）。不過，也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
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