- 伊隆·馬斯克會在 2026 年重返川普政府嗎？4¢4%
Elon Musk's 2025 exit from the Department of Government Efficiency after clashing with President Trump over federal spending legislation has anchored trader views that a formal reentry into the administration remains unlikely through the rest of 2026. Recent reconciliation has produced only narrow advisory involvement, such as co-leading the Pentagon's Project Meridian study on future warfare alongside Palmer Luckey and Newt Gingrich, while Musk prioritizes private-sector advances at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. Heavy midterm campaign spending and ceremonial honors like the National Medal of Science signal influence without a full-time role. A major cabinet-level appointment or expanded mandate after the November elections could still shift sentiment, though current market-implied odds reflect skepticism that such a development will materialize.
規則
如果唐納·川普在市場建立後至 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 期間，正式提名或任命伊隆·馬斯克加入其政府，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 川普政府包括由唐納·川普正式任命或提名、在美國聯邦政府內擔任職務的人士，例如內閣成員、行政辦公室職員、高級政策顧問、大使，或其任命已透過官方政府管道公開宣布的白宮職員。 即使該人士未獲確認，提名仍符合條件。 此市場的主要判定依據將是美國政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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