- 伊隆·馬斯克會取得 St. Clair 孩子的完全監護權嗎？2¢2%
St. Clair’s active lawsuit seeking sole custody of son Romulus, combined with the ongoing contentious proceedings, underpins traders’ overwhelming 97.3% “No” consensus that Musk will not obtain full custody. Recent coverage of the Alex Gibney documentary Musk highlights financial disputes and public allegations but shows no court developments favoring Musk’s sole control, consistent with typical family-court patterns that rarely award one parent exclusive rights absent clear evidence of the other’s unfitness. Musk’s extensive business and public commitments, plus his other children, further reduce the likelihood of a full-custody outcome. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited to dramatic new evidence—such as verified safety concerns or a surprise settlement granting primary physical custody—though the current record and legal posture make such shifts improbable before resolution.
規則
1月12日，Elon Musk 宣布，他將申請與 Ashley St. Clair 所生孩子的完全監護權。（參見：https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair） 如果在 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 前，任何美國法院以最終命令裁定 Elon Musk 對其兒子 Romulus 擁有單獨法律監護權，或主要居住／實體監護權，則此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 臨時監護命令或過渡安排不符合本市場結算為「是」的條件，除非它們在市場所述截止時間前成為最終命令。 如果所有相關法院訴訟永久停止，或由任何一方撤回，本市場將立即結算為「否」。 此市場將根據 Elon Musk、Ashley St. Clair、其官方法律或社群媒體代表的公告，或可信報導形成的共識進行判定。
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