- Clarence Thomas 會在 2026年12月31日 前宣布退休嗎？18¢18%
- Clarence Thomas 會在 2027年6月30日 前宣布退休嗎？27¢27%
Justice Clarence Thomas, the 78-year-old longest-serving member of the current Supreme Court and a George H.W. Bush appointee, has not announced retirement plans as of early November 2026. Speculation centers on the post-midterm lame-duck session, where Senate control will determine confirmation prospects for any successor. Democrats hold strong odds of gaining the chamber, raising the prospect that a delayed departure could face opposition from the incoming majority. Thomas has previously dismissed retirement talk and appears positioned to pursue the record for longest tenure, which he would reach in 2028. Neither he nor Justice Samuel Alito has signaled an imminent exit despite their ages and the strategic window before the new Congress convenes in January 2027. Recent court activity, including Thomas questioning counsel for the first time in years, shows continued engagement. Traders monitor Senate results and any public statements or health updates that could prompt an announcement before the session ends.
規則
如果 Clarence Thomas 在指定日期 下午11:59 ET 前宣布將從美國最高法院大法官一職退休，此市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 其宣布的退休時間可以是立即生效、在本屆最高法院任期結束時，或未來任何時間。 Thomas 的任何符合資格的公告都將計入「是」結算，無論宣布的退休是否實際生效。 此市場的結算依據為 Thomas 或其任何一位官方代表發布的官方公告。
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