- 中國會在 2027年6月30日 前入侵台灣嗎？5¢5%
Taiwan's assessment of over 50 Chinese naval and coast guard vessels operating across regional waters in late October, including the Liaoning carrier group, underscores continued gray-zone pressure and hybrid tactics rather than imminent invasion preparations. US and Taiwanese intelligence assessments indicate the People's Liberation Army lacks sufficient amphibious, logistical, and air-sea superiority capabilities for a full-scale operation in the near term, with official reports emphasizing capacity-building toward later windows like 2030. Joint US-Japan exercises, anti-ship missile deployments, and alliance deterrence further elevate the costs of military action. Trader consensus at 95.5% against an invasion by June 2027 reflects these structural barriers and the preference for coercive diplomacy over conflict. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include sudden miscalculation during exercises, leadership-driven policy reversal in Beijing, or rapid capability breakthroughs.
規則
如果中國在2027年6月30日 下午11:59 ET之前發動旨在控制中華民國（台灣）任何部分的軍事攻勢，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 中華民國管轄下的領土，包括任何有人居住的島嶼，均符合條件；但無人居住的島嶼不符合條件。 本市場的結算依據將是中國、台灣、聯合國或聯合國安全理事會任何常任理事國的官方確認；但也會採用可信報導的一致共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。