- 國際法院會在2027年12月31日前裁定以色列或其領導人犯有種族滅絕罪嗎？14¢14%
The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel remains in the preliminary written pleadings stage, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029, pushing any potential merits hearings and judgment well beyond the 2027 deadline. Recent orders extending deadlines and Colombia’s withdrawal of its intervention in September 2026 underscore the slow pace, while provisional measures issued earlier address risk of harm rather than a final genocide determination. The ICC’s arrest warrants against Israeli leaders cover alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, not genocide, and appeals have not altered that scope. These structural timelines and jurisdictional distinctions underpin traders’ strong consensus that no international court will issue a genocide finding by the end of 2027.
規則
若國際刑事法院（「ICC」）、國際法院（「ICJ」）或任何具有公認法律地位的臨時國際法庭，在 2027年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前作出判決或定罪，認定以色列國或任何現任或前任以色列官員犯下種族滅絕或種族滅絕行為，則本市場將結算為「是」。否則，本市場將判定為「否」。 臨時法庭的判決若要與本市場相關，該法庭必須由聯合國或其任何機構設立。 即使一審定罪或判決仍可上訴，或尚未在上訴中獲得維持，仍符合結算為「是」的條件。 不屬於實體判決的初步或臨時認定，不符合本市場的結算條件。 結算依據將為 ICC、ICJ 或符合條件的臨時法庭所發布的官方聲明；但亦會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
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