- 阿爾伯塔會加入美國嗎？2¢2%
Recent voter rejection of Alberta's independence pathway in the October 19, 2026, referendum, with roughly 75 percent opposing any further process, has reinforced the near-certain trader consensus against the province joining the United States. Canadian constitutional requirements, including Supreme Court precedents on secession negotiations with the federal government and other provinces, create prohibitive legal barriers with no established mechanism for U.S. annexation. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has pledged to honor the result and pursue greater autonomy only within Canada, while broader national unity efforts under Prime Minister Mark Carney amid U.S. trade tensions have further diminished separatist momentum. Traders assign minimal weight to fringe external interest from U.S. figures, viewing it as insufficient to overcome these structural obstacles. Only unprecedented developments such as a full Canadian constitutional crisis or dissolution could plausibly reopen the question.
規則
如果在 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 前正式宣布 Alberta 將納入美國主權之下，或 Alberta 正式納入美國主權之下，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，本市場將判定為「否」。 主權的定義是：將截至 2026年2月6日 的 Alberta 領土大部分（目前為加拿大的一個省）移交至美國的正式治理或管轄之下，無論其在美國體制內被歸類為州、領地或其他類別。 若美國和加拿大在本市場的期限內正式宣布 Alberta 將納入美國主權之下，即符合條件，即使主權尚未實際移交亦然。只有正式協議或行動的公告（例如經批准的條約、已簽署的法案等）才會計入；單純的提議、談判或社群媒體貼文均不計入。 本市場的判定依據將是美國、加拿大和 Alberta 政府的官方資訊；但若可信報導形成共識，確認 Alberta 已納入美國主權之下，也符合判定條件。
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