- AI 會在 2027 年前被控犯罪嗎？4¢4%
Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability to no AI being charged with a crime before 2027 primarily because existing legal frameworks hold developers, companies, or users liable rather than treating artificial intelligence systems as autonomous legal persons. No regulatory filings, court rulings, or official announcements have advanced criminal charges against models or agents in the past year, and the brief window remaining through 2026 leaves little room for legislative or judicial shifts. Strong trader consensus reflects the absence of demonstrated AI agency that meets criminal intent standards, alongside historical patterns where liability stays with human actors. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unprecedented regulatory intervention or reinterpretation of existing statutes in response to a high-profile incident, though such changes typically require extended deliberation.
規則
如果美國任何聯邦或州級司法管轄區在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前正式起訴任何 AI 或 LLM，或以其他方式宣布對其提出刑事起訴，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 就本市場而言，哥倫比亞特區以及任何州的任何郡、市或其他次級行政區均納入「州」的定義。僅對 AI 或大型語言模型背後的公司或組織提出指控或起訴並不足夠。指控或起訴必須是針對 AI 或 LLM 本身。 本市場的主要判定依據為美國政府來源的官方資訊；不過，也會參考可信報導的廣泛共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。