- KRG 會在 12月31日 前宣布脫離伊拉克獨立嗎？5¢5%
The high implied probability against a KRG independence declaration by December 31 stems primarily from sustained emphasis on federal coordination and internal stabilization rather than secession. Following the September 30, 2026, conclusion of the international Coalition mission, KRG leaders including Masoud Barzani have publicly stressed joint security arrangements with Baghdad to address threats such as ISIS remnants, while Peshmerga forces operate in alignment with federal structures. Recent activities center on reactivating the Kurdistan parliament, advancing cabinet formation between the KDP and PUK, negotiating budget allocations based on the 2024 census, and managing oil export routes amid regional tensions. Marking the ninth anniversary of the 2017 referendum has remained commemorative without renewed unilateral steps, as external opposition from Baghdad, Turkey, and Iran, combined with domestic priorities like minority protection strategies and Iran-related diplomacy, continues to constrain any near-term independence push.
規則
如果庫德斯坦地區政府（KRG），或 KRG 的執政黨、聯盟或行政官員，在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前正式宣布成立一個脫離伊拉克的新獨立國家，並宣稱對伊拉克境內某個指定領土擁有治理權，則此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 只要符合條件的公開公告已發布，即足以判定為「是」，無論治理權是否實際建立、維持或獲得承認。 該宣言必須包含由該組織或其領導層發布的明確公開聲明，宣布成立一個脫離伊拉克的獨立政治實體，並宣稱對先前由伊拉克管轄的一個已明確指出的地理區域擁有政府管轄權。 所主張的領土不必精確界定，但至少必須部分具體說明。所主張領土的大部分必須位於伊拉克在此市場建立時存在的國際公認邊界之內。 判定依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。