- Vance 今年會宣布他不會在 2028 年競選總統嗎？3¢3%
Vice President JD Vance has repeatedly deferred any decision on a 2028 presidential bid until after the November midterms, describing himself as a procrastinator on major personal choices and citing his four young children and wife Usha’s preference for public service over politics. As the clear frontrunner in early Republican primary polling, he has focused statements on supporting GOP candidates in the current cycle rather than closing the door on a future run, consistent with historical patterns for sitting vice presidents. Other potential contenders, including Sen. Ted Cruz, have begun positioning themselves, yet no recent announcements, polling shifts, or administration events have prompted Vance to rule himself out. Traders therefore assign low probability to an explicit withdrawal announcement in the remainder of 2026.
規則
如果 JD Vance 在市場建立後至 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 期間宣布不會參加 2028 年美國總統選舉、競逐美國總統，則此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 符合資格的宣布必須明確表示 Vance 不會在 2028 年競選總統，或永遠不會競選總統。表示 Vance 尚未決定是否參選的聲明不符合資格。 此市場結算的主要依據將是 JD Vance 或其官方代表提供的官方資訊；不過，可信報導達成共識也足以作為依據。
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