- USMCA 會在 2026 年延長嗎？7¢7%
At the July 1, 2026, USMCA joint review, the United States formally declined to renew the agreement for a new 16-year term, while Canada and Mexico affirmed support, activating annual reviews under Article 34.7 and starting a countdown to potential expiration in 2036. This U.S. position, driven by demands to address trade deficits, tighten automotive rules of origin, reduce non-market content, and adjust labor, agriculture, and tariff provisions, has kept the pact in force but shifted negotiations to bilateral tracks with Mexico and Canada. Ongoing talks have produced interim proposals such as 10-year extensions with frequent reviews, yet recent reports indicate stalled progress amid Section 232 tariffs, disputes over steel, aluminum, autos, and produce imports, and USTR comments sought ahead of the 2027 review. These developments have led traders to assign high probability against any full extension occurring before year-end.
規則
如果《美國－墨西哥－加拿大協定》（USMCA）在 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 前正式延長，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 符合資格的延長，必須由三方正式延長協定的有效期限。這可以透過書面確認三方希望依據 USMCA 第 34.7 條將有效期限再延長一段期間，或透過其他能明確且確定地延長期限的正式方式達成，例如一致通過協定修正案。無論延長是否也包含經協商對原協定作出的修改，均符合資格。 以下情況不符合資格：未伴隨正式延長的公告；僅延長個別條款而未延長協定本身的有效期限；並非三方全體作出的延長承諾；以及以單獨或後續協定取代 USMCA，而非延續現有協定。 主要判定依據為美國、加拿大和墨西哥的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。