- 美國會在 2027 年之前接管巴拿馬運河嗎？3¢3%
Recent U.S. diplomatic pressure has prompted Panama to address concerns over foreign influence at canal terminals through domestic legal processes, including a Supreme Court ruling annulling CK Hutchison’s concessions and subsequent government seizure of the Balboa and Cristóbal ports for temporary operation by Maersk and MSC units. Panama has also offered priority transit for U.S. warships and engaged directly with U.S. officials on treaty compliance. These steps have reduced perceived Chinese leverage without altering Panamanian sovereignty over the waterway, which has operated under the Panama Canal Authority since 1999. Traders assign a 96.5% probability to “No” because any unilateral U.S. assertion of control would face substantial treaty, alliance, and economic barriers, though escalation risks remain if bilateral accommodations collapse before the 2027 resolution date.
規則
如果巴拿馬運河在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前由美國控制，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，本市場將判定為「否」。 就本市場而言，美國控制是指美國透過外交協議、軍事行動或任何其他方式，取得對運河的主要營運權。 美國與巴拿馬正式宣布巴拿馬運河將由美國控制，即符合條件，即使實際控制權尚未移交亦然。只有正式協議或行動的公告（例如行政命令、已簽署的法案等）才會計入；僅在社群媒體發布貼文則不計入。 本市場的判定依據將是美國政府與巴拿馬政府的官方資訊；不過，若可信報導形成共識，確認巴拿馬運河已納入美國主權管轄，也符合判定條件。
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