- 2027年12月31日前，烏克蘭會發生政變未遂嗎？15¢15%
- 2026年12月31日前，烏克蘭會發生政變未遂嗎？4¢4%
US pressure on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has intensified in mid-October 2026, with President Trump publicly stating it is time for a new Ukrainian leader and Elon Musk echoing calls for his departure, coinciding with US restrictions on Starlink access and intelligence sharing tied to Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy targets. Zelenskyy has rejected resignation demands, conditioned any election on a 60-day Russian ceasefire, and reaffirmed his intent to defend Ukrainian territory. Domestic discussions of legitimacy persist due to the expired presidential term under martial law, with opposition figures warning of instability if elections remain postponed, while polling shows Zelenskyy competitive against potential challengers such as former General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. These factors shape trader views on risks of internal power challenges amid the ongoing conflict.
規則
如果在市場建立至 2027年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 期間的任何時間，烏克蘭發生的政變企圖受到廣泛報導，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 政變企圖是指軍方、安全部隊或其他國家行為者（或其派系）協調並蓄意推翻烏克蘭政府或其領導層，或非法奪取其控制權的行動。非國家武裝力量的革命行動、零星抗議或一般性動盪，單獨而言均不符合條件。 烏克蘭政府聲稱政變企圖已遭挫敗（例如透過逮捕或阻止已計畫的行動），只有在可信的獨立消息來源廣泛報導該事件，並明確將其定性為政變企圖時，才會計入判定為「是」。若政變尚未有人嘗試執行，則遭挫敗的陰謀或逮捕行動均不符合條件。 判定依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。