- 土耳其會在 2026 年推動制定新憲法嗎？14¢14%
Recent parliamentary rhetoric and preparatory steps have not shifted expectations for concrete constitutional action in 2026. President Erdoğan’s October 1 address renewed calls for a civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, and adviser Mehmet Uçum identified that date as the formal start of groundwork focused on principles and consensus. However, ruling-party officials and advisers have framed realistic drafting and adoption for after the 2028 elections in the next parliamentary term, stressing the need for broad cross-party agreement and a required referendum. AK Party preparatory work concluded earlier in the year without advancing to parliamentary votes or public ballots. With the ruling alliance lacking the supermajority for passage and no scheduled votes or referendums imminent before year-end, traders assign an 86% probability to no meaningful movement occurring in 2026.
規則
如果在 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 之前正式宣布將在土耳其舉行採納新憲法的公投，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 符合資格的公投，是指在土耳其全國舉行、旨在採納新憲法的任何投票。旨在批准一項或多項憲法修正案的公投不符合資格。 符合資格的公告必須註明公投日期，或明確宣布將舉行公投。只要在指定日期之前發布公告，即符合資格，無論公投預定何時舉行。 如果在指定期限內未舉行公投便正式採納新憲法（例如透過所需的議會特別多數），此市場將立即判定為「是」。 此市場的主要判定依據為土耳其政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。