- 特朗普會在 2027 年前依據《第二十五修正案》被免職嗎？2¢2%
The high trader consensus against removal via the 25th Amendment before 2027 reflects President Trump's continued public schedule, policy execution, and lack of cabinet declarations or documented incapacity that would activate the process under Section 4. With no active disputes between the vice president and cabinet majority, and historical use limited to acute medical crises rather than political disagreements, the mechanism remains dormant. Republican majorities in Congress further reduce the likelihood of sustained challenges. Unforeseen health developments, sudden cabinet shifts, or extreme institutional fractures before the end of 2026 could still introduce limited volatility, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
規則
如果唐納·川普在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前，依照美國憲法第二十五修正案第 4 條所列程序被正式免去美國總統職務，本市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 若副總統依據《第二十五修正案》第 3 節所載程序成為代理總統，這不會影響本市場的判定。只有川普透過第二十五修正案第 4 條所列程序被免去職務，才符合結算為「是」的條件。 如果川普因任何其他原因在本市場到期日前不再擔任美國總統，本市場可能會立即結算為「否」。 本市場的判定依據將是美國政府的官方資訊。
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