- 伊朗會在 2026年12月31日 前全面斷網嗎？37¢37%
Iranian authorities have repeatedly imposed severe nationwide internet restrictions in 2026 amid protests and conflict, shaping trader views on the likelihood of a total blackout by upcoming dates. An 88-day near-total outage from late February to late May followed the outbreak of conflict with the United States and Israel, dropping traffic to roughly 1% of normal levels according to NetBlocks and Cloudflare data—the longest such event on record. Partial restoration occurred in late May under President Masoud Pezeshkian, but connectivity stabilized at only about 59-60% of prior volumes with tiered “Internet Pro” access, ongoing filtering, and slowdowns. Fresh nationwide disruptions and mobile restrictions reported by NetBlocks in October 2026 coincided with renewed protests over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation, while officials advance a domestic intranet and countermeasures against satellite services like Starlink. These patterns of using connectivity controls during unrest, combined with persistent filtering and protest risks through year-end, drive the market’s assessment of escalation potential versus gradual or selective reconnection.
規則
如果伊朗在指定日期 下午11:59 UTC 前發生全面網際網路中斷，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 就本市場而言，若根據 Cloudflare Radar 的伊朗資料，總傳輸位元組數至少連續六個每小時資料點降至過去 4 週最高值的 1.0% 或以下，即視為發生「全面網際網路中斷」；相關數據顯示於過去 4 週的 Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) 圖表中（https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d）。 此圖表會以「__% of Max」列出每個每小時資料點的相關數值。每個資料點的 Max 將採用 Cloudflare 在圖表中使用的 Max 數值。 相關連續每小時資料點中，只有第一個必須出現在本市場的結算時間之前。如有需要，為確認完整序列，本市場將保持開放，直到觀察到兩個相關資料點為止。 本市場的主要結算來源為 Cloudflare Radar 的伊朗資料，具體而言，是 https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d 上過去 4 週的 Iran Traffic trends 圖表。如果此結算來源永久無法使用，也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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