- Taylor 和 Travis 會在 2026 年離婚嗎？2¢2%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's July 2026 wedding at Madison Square Garden, officiated by Adam Sandler and attended by roughly 1,000 guests, established the foundation for trader consensus against a 2026 divorce. Recent verified sightings, including joint appearances at Chiefs games and a New York birthday dinner in October, along with insider reports describing the newlyweds as thrilled with married life, have reinforced stability. No credible statements or reports indicate marital strain. While celebrity relationships remain subject to rapid shifts from unannounced developments, the lack of confirmed friction sustains the 97.5% market-implied probability for "No."
規則
如果 Taylor Swift 或 Travis Kelce 在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 之前宣布有意離婚、宣布已完成離婚，或提出離婚申請，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 宣布有意離婚，即足以判定為「是」，無論日後是否真的離婚，或實際離婚是否發生在此市場的時間範圍之外。僅宣布分居並不足以符合條件。 如果 Taylor Swift 或 Travis Kelce 未作出此類宣布便正式提出離婚申請，只要可信報導普遍認為已提出申請，即足以判定為「是」。 判定結果的依據將是 Taylor Swift、Travis Kelce 及其官方代表的聲明；但也可以採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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