- 瑞典會在 2026 年提前舉行大選嗎？21¢21%
Sweden’s post-September 13, 2026, parliamentary election has produced a narrow centre-left majority (176 seats to 173 for the right-wing bloc) but persistent coalition deadlock, keeping the probability of an automatic snap election (extraval) this year relatively contained. The Riksdag has already rejected two Speaker proposals—Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson in October and Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist on November 3—leaving outgoing Moderate Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson with the third attempt and a mid-November reporting deadline. Under the Instrument of Government, a fourth rejection would trigger a snap election within three months, but parties across blocs have shown caution over the roughly 630 million SEK cost, the caretaker government’s budget deadline of November 12, and shifting post-election polling that has modestly improved the Moderates’ position. Negotiations remain hampered by cross-bloc incompatibilities, notably the Centre Party’s resistance to cooperating with the Left Party and the Sweden Democrats. With two votes failed and Kristersson’s exploratory mandate now underway, traders appear to assign higher weight to the likelihood of eventual compromise or additional rounds before the constitutional threshold is reached, rather than an immediate path to four rejections before year-end. No new parliamentary vote has been scheduled as of early November, and the caretaker administration continues routine operations pending further Speaker consultations.
規則
如果瑞典在市場建立至 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 之間宣布提前選舉，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 宣布提前選舉，必須依照相關司法管轄區的規則，正式下令舉行特別選舉，或以其他方式正式安排在下一次已排定的 Riksdag 常規選舉之前，為 Riksdag 全體議員舉行選舉。由政府下令舉行的特別選舉、Speaker 在 Riksdag 四度否決 Speaker 提名的首相人選後正式安排的特別選舉，以及《政府組織法》規定的任何其他方式，均符合條件。 宣布有意下令舉行特別選舉、首相人選提案的表決未獲通過，或聯合政府談判破裂，單獨而言均不足以使市場判定為「是」。首相人選提案第四次遭否決，必須等到隨之而來的特別選舉正式排定後，才符合條件。 選舉不必在期限前舉行。符合條件的選舉一經正式下令或排定，其後取消或延期均不會影響判定。 本市場的判定依據為瑞典政府和 Riksdag 的官方資訊；但亦可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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