- SPLC 會在 2026 年被判有罪嗎？12¢12%
The federal criminal prosecution of the Southern Poverty Law Center in the Middle District of Alabama, indicted in April 2026 on 11 counts including wire fraud, false statements to a bank, and money-laundering conspiracy, remains the dominant factor behind trader expectations. Prosecutors allege the organization funneled millions in donor funds to informants inside extremist groups between 2014 and 2023 without disclosure. The SPLC entered not-guilty pleas, its motion to dismiss on vindictive-prosecution grounds was denied in August, and a superseding indictment followed in June; a trial is scheduled for October 2026. As of mid-October the case has produced no verdict or plea, and complex donor-fraud litigation of this type has historically required extended proceedings before any finding of guilt. Separate civil defamation suits advancing in other courts do not trigger the market’s resolution criteria.
規則
2026年4月21日，美國司法部宣布對 Southern Poverty Law Center（SPLC）提出起訴，其中包括電信詐欺和銀行詐欺等指控（參見：https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/g-s1-118275/southern-poverty-law-center-fraud-charges-paid-informants）。 如果截至 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET，SPLC 在本案的任何一項指控中被判有罪，此市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 如果本案因認罪協議但未承認有罪而終結、遭到駁回，或出現任何法院未作出判決的情況，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場將根據本案作出的第一項官方判決結算；該判決須判定有罪，或在未判定有罪的情況下最終處置相關指控。任何上訴均不會影響此市場的結算。 主要結算依據為相關法院的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導的共識。
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