- Sanae Takaichi 會在 2026 年卸任日本首相嗎？3¢3%
Sanae Takaichi's position as Japan's prime minister rests on the Liberal Democratic Party's commanding two-thirds supermajority in the lower house, secured through her February 2026 election victory, which delivered a historic mandate for defense expansion, economic security measures, and tax relief. As she marks her first anniversary in late October 2026, cabinet approval ratings near 50 percent remain above typical danger zones for Japanese leaders despite a minor dip tied to the October resignation of agriculture minister Kazuo Yana over controversial remarks. Traders assign the "no" outcome a 95.2 percent implied probability because no-confidence motions or leadership challenges appear remote before year-end. Late developments such as an escalated cabinet scandal, sudden coalition fractures, or unforeseen health events could still alter the timeline within the narrow remaining window.
規則
若 Sanae Takaichi 在市場建立至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 期間的任何時段不再擔任日本首相，此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 若在此市場結束日期之前宣布 Takaichi 辭職或被免職，此市場將立即結算為「是」，無論宣布的辭職或免職何時生效。 如果指定人士遭到拘留、實際上被撤離指定職位，或在本市場的時間範圍內以其他方式被永久阻止履行指定職位的職責，則符合結算為「是」的條件。 此市場的結算依據將是 Sanae Takaichi 與日本政府的官方資訊；不過，也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。