- 俄羅斯會在 2026年12月31日 前試驗核武器嗎？4¢4%
Russia continues to conduct strategic nuclear forces exercises and advanced weapons system tests, including recent submerged launches of Kalibr and Oniks cruise missiles from the Yasen-M submarine Novosibirsk and intercontinental ballistic missile drills overseen by President Putin, without any confirmed explosive nuclear detonations. Kremlin statements have repeatedly denied secret nuclear tests and emphasized compliance with the existing testing moratorium, while distinguishing these capability demonstrations from prohibited yield-producing events. Ongoing diplomatic frictions, including stalled arms control talks and the Ukraine conflict, sustain market attention, though trader pricing reflects the high threshold for an actual test and the diplomatic costs involved. Scheduled military activities and any shifts in U.S.-Russia or China-related arms control dynamics remain key near-term factors.
規則
如果俄羅斯在所列日期（ET）當天或之前進行核試驗，此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 核試驗是指俄羅斯蓄意引爆裝置，且該行為並非出於戰鬥目的，並產生核連鎖反應（核分裂或核融合）；無論其當量為何，均符合此定義。 意外事故、放射性散布裝置（使用傳統炸藥散布放射性物質的炸彈，例如「髒彈」），或第三方的行動，均不納入此市場的判定。 即使俄羅斯未明確宣稱進行試驗，只要可信報導有明確共識，認定核爆是由俄羅斯所為，該試驗仍可能符合條件。例如，若可信報導將一次未經宣稱、類似 1979 年「Vela Incident」的核試驗歸因於俄羅斯，該試驗便會計入。 此市場的判定依據將是可信報導所形成的廣泛共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。