- Rocket Lab 的 Neutron 火箭會在 12月31日 前發射嗎？4¢4%
Rocket Lab's official October 14 announcement that Neutron's first flight has shifted to 2027, driven by manufacturing voids in the carbon-composite forward dome of the first-stage propellant tank, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. The company had aimed for Q4 2026 pad delivery or flight, but the defect—identified during automated fiber placement and inspections—requires a new dome build, curing, verification, stage assembly, and full hydrostatic plus cryogenic testing campaigns that extend into Q1 2027 before any new target date is set. Prior delays from tank ruptures and process changes have already consumed the remaining calendar window, with CEO Peter Beck emphasizing caution over rushed timelines. While unforeseen acceleration of parallel builds or regulatory fast-tracking could theoretically compress schedules, the explicit company statement and multi-quarter test sequence make a December 31 liftoff highly improbable.
規則
如果 Rocket Lab 的 Neutron 火箭在 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 前從其發射台成功發射，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 任何發射的結果都將透過檢視 Rocket Lab 提供的官方影片 (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp)，以及必要時的次要影片來源和／或書面報告來佐證。 初始升空後發生的任何異常（例如爆炸或爬升失敗）都不會影響結果。Neutron 載具的任何更名或品牌重塑都不會影響本市場的判定。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。