- Poilievre 會在 2026年12月31日 前卸任保守黨領袖嗎？12¢12%
Pierre Poilievre retained his position as Conservative Party of Canada leader with an 87.4% vote in the January 2026 leadership review following the party's 2025 federal election loss to Mark Carney's Liberals. He subsequently won a by-election in Battle River—Crowfoot and continues to serve as the primary opposition voice on issues including affordability, immigration, trade relations with the United States, and national unity ahead of Alberta's referendum. While internal caucus frustration and unfavorable polling have surfaced in recent months, party sources indicate no organized effort or viable alternative to force a change. Traders assign a 92% probability that he remains in place through December 2026, reflecting the absence of scheduled leadership mechanisms or acute pressure that would alter his status before year-end.
規則
若 Pierre Poilievre 在市場建立至指定日期（ET）之間的任何一段時間內不再擔任加拿大保守黨黨魁，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 若在此市場結束日期前宣布 Pierre Poilievre 辭職或遭免職，此市場將立即判定為「是」，無論宣布的辭職或免職何時生效。 此市場的判定依據將是 Pierre Poilievre 和加拿大保守黨的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。