- OpenAI 的 Astra 模型會以至少 1480 分的成績在 Arena 領先榜上首次亮相嗎？73¢
- OpenAI 的 Astra 模型會以至少 1490 分的成績首次登上 Arena 排行榜嗎？49¢
- OpenAI 的 Astra 模型會以至少 1500 分的成績在競技場排行榜上首次亮相嗎？27¢
- OpenAI 的 Astra 模型會以至少 1510 的分數在 Arena 領先榜上首次亮相嗎？14¢
- OpenAI 的 Astra 模型會以至少 1520 分的成績登上 Arena 排行榜嗎？6¢
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra on September 3, 2026, positioning the model as its most capable yet for computer use, software engineering, cybersecurity, and professional workflows, with strong benchmark results on Terminal-Bench 4.0, OSWorld 2.0, and ARC-AGI-3. The limited initial rollout targets Daybreak cybersecurity users before expanding to ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Enterprise, and API access over subsequent days. Prior OpenAI frontier models such as GPT-5.6 Sol and earlier variants debuted outside the top 10 on text leaderboards like Arena AI, creating precedent that shapes trader views on whether Astra will claim the highest rank upon entry. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Fable series and the focus on agentic rather than pure conversational performance add uncertainty around rapid leaderboard dominance. Resolution hinges on the model’s first confirmed appearance and its Elo positioning within the seven-day window.