- 2026 年紐西蘭大選的投票率會低於 76% 嗎？<1¢<1%
- 2026 年紐西蘭大選的投票率會介於 76% 至 78% 之間嗎？12¢12%
- 2026 年紐西蘭大選的投票率會介於 78% 至 80% 之間嗎？39¢39%
- 2026 年紐西蘭大選的投票率會介於 80% 至 82% 之間嗎？50¢50%
- 2026 年紐西蘭大選的投票率會介於 82% 至 84% 之間嗎？5¢5%
- 2026 年紐西蘭大選的投票率會達到 84% 或以上嗎？<1¢<1%
The tight contest between National and Labour, with neither bloc likely to secure a majority and the centrist Opportunity Party positioned as a potential kingmaker, has kept the New Zealand election highly competitive heading into November 7. This dynamic, combined with record early voting—over 1.25 million ballots cast by early November, roughly 30% ahead of the comparable 2023 period—has supported trader expectations for turnout in the 78-82% range of enrolled voters. However, the new enrolment deadline of October 25, which reduced the overall rate to 93.6% (about 40,000 fewer than in 2023, with youth enrolment notably lower at 74.2%), introduces downward pressure by limiting last-minute registrations. Historical turnout of 78.2% in 2023, negative campaigning, and voter fatigue further contribute to the narrow spread between the leading 78-80% and 80-82% brackets, as additional mobilization from the close race could offset enrolment shortfalls while election-day participation remains uncertain.
規則
紐西蘭預定於 2026年11月7日 舉行大選。 本市場將依據 2026 年紐西蘭大選的官方投票率結果結算。投票率定義為投出的總票數除以登記選民總數（投票總數相對於選民名冊上的選民人數，包含普通選區與毛利選區的合計）。 如果公布的數值恰好落在兩個區間之間，本市場將按較高的區間結算。 如果截至 2027年10月31日 下午11:59 ET 尚未能確定本次選舉結果，本市場將按最低的區間結算。 本市場的主要結算依據為 New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/) 公布的官方選舉結果；但若無官方結果，也可採用可信報導的一致共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。