- 2026 年會有新的大流行病嗎？2¢2%
Strong surveillance from the CDC and WHO shows respiratory illness activity, including COVID-19, remaining low nationally with declining cases and no novel pathogen achieving sustained global transmission as of early November 2026. Current variants such as XFG and BA.3.2 are classified as low-risk variants under monitoring, with vaccines retaining effectiveness against severe outcomes and outbreaks like Ebola in the DRC staying regionally contained rather than escalating to epidemic thresholds. This evidence underpins the 97.9% market-implied probability of no new pandemic, reflecting trader consensus on endemic patterns and historical rarity of rapid global spread. Realistic shifts could still arise from an immune-evasive strain emerging with high transmissibility or unexpected escalation of localized threats beyond containment before year-end.
規則
如果世界衛生組織（WHO）在2026年1月1日至2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET之間宣布任何疾病為大流行病，此市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 結算依據將是世界衛生組織的官方公告。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。