- 民主黨會在 2026 年贏得新墨西哥州的參議院選舉嗎？96¢
- 共和黨會在 2026 年贏得新墨西哥州的參議院選舉嗎？4¢
Ben Ray Luján’s strong position in the November 3, 2026, New Mexico Senate election stems from his incumbency, consistent double-digit leads in recent polling, and broad support among Democrats and independents. The state’s Democratic lean, evident in recent presidential results, combined with Luján’s substantial fundraising edge and established name recognition, has kept the race rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Republican nominee Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who advanced only as a write-in candidate after the initial GOP contender was disqualified, trails significantly in resources and visibility. Traders’ consensus reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
規則
本市場將根據 2026 年新墨西哥州美國參議院期中選舉的勝選者結算，包括任何決選。 若某候選人獲相關政黨提名，則視為代表該政黨。民主黨或共和黨提名人選以外的候選人（例如綠黨、自由意志黨或無黨籍候選人）可能會在日後加入。 以無黨籍身分參選的候選人，不論其與該政黨有任何關聯，都不會納入「民主黨」或「共和黨」選項。 為方便交易者，合約中可能會列出候選人的姓名。如果任何一位列名候選人在選舉日前被替換，不再代表其所屬政黨參選，合約中的姓名將會更新，市場將根據該政黨的替代候選人結果結算。 本市場的結算依據為 Associated Press、Fox News 和 NBC。三個來源都宣布同一位候選人勝選後，本市場即會結算。如果三個消息來源都未在此州宣布同一位候選人勝選，此市場將根據官方認證結果結算。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。