- Mike Johnson 會在 12月31日 前卸任眾議院議長嗎？15¢15%
The November 3, 2026, midterm elections represent the dominant near-term catalyst for any market on Mike Johnson’s tenure as Speaker. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, and most forecasts point to a Democratic flip that would install a new speaker when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027. Johnson has spent recent weeks campaigning heavily in competitive districts while acknowledging in interviews the possibility of minority status, though he has stated he expects colleagues to retain him as GOP leader regardless. No active motion to vacate or internal Republican challenge has gained traction ahead of the vote. Historical midterm patterns and current polling averages on the generic ballot continue to shape trader assessments of whether Johnson retains the gavel into the new session.
規則
如果 Mike Johnson 宣布將辭去美國眾議院議長一職，或在 2025年12月4日 至 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 期間曾在任何時段不再擔任議長，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 請注意，只要他在市場判定日期前宣布辭職，即足以使此市場判定為「是」，無論他是否實際卸任，以及何時卸任。 此市場判定的主要依據為美利堅合眾國政府的官方資訊，或 Mike Johnson 或其代表的官方聲明；但可信報導形成共識亦足以作為判定依據。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。