- BSW 是否會在所有有效的第二選票中獲得 3% 到 5% 的選票？100¢100%
- BSW 是否會獲得所有有效第二選票的 5% 到 7%？0¢0%
- BSW會獲得少於3%的所有有效第二選票嗎？0¢0%
- BSW 將獲得至少 7% 的所有有效第二選票嗎？0¢0%
Recent polling trends and the final certified results from the September 20, 2026 Landtag election placed the BSW vote share at 4.8 percent, reflecting its first statewide contest and limited organizational reach in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. A polarized campaign dominated by the AfD-SPD contest squeezed smaller parties, while perceptions of internal BSW disputes and competition for protest votes from the Left and others capped support near the five-percent threshold. Pre-election surveys from multiple institutes consistently showed the party between three and six percent in the final weeks, aligning with the outcome. Late swings in turnout or regional pockets of strength could have altered the margin, yet the tallies confirmed the 3-5 percent band as the decisive range.
規則
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).