The US trade embargo, reinforced by tightened 2026 sanctions under the Trump administration that limit dealings with Cuban state entities while permitting only private-sector transactions, remains the dominant barrier preventing McDonald’s from announcing operations on the island. Cuban Decree 167, enacted in August after June announcements by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, authorizes foreign food-service franchises in principle, yet no agreements, licensing deals, or corporate commitments have materialized amid unresolved issues over profit repatriation, supply chains, and sanctions compliance. Trader consensus at 96% against an announcement by year-end reflects these structural constraints and the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs. A late-2026 policy shift easing embargo restrictions or an unexpected bilateral accord could still alter the outcome before December 31.
若 McDonald’s Corporation,或獲授權在古巴開設或營運 McDonald’s 餐廳的 McDonald’s 特許經營商或代表,宣布將在古巴開設或已開設任何 McDonald’s 餐廳,或此類開業以其他方式獲得確認,則本市場將判定為「是」,期限為 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET。This 否則,此市場將以「否」結算。 在此市場的期限內發布的官方公告,無論之後是否在期限內實際開設 McDonald’s 餐廳,均符合以「是」結算的條件。 在古巴開設任何 McDonald’s 餐廳,不論確切地點為何,均符合條件。 未明確承諾開設 McDonald’s 餐廳的公告,例如一般性的業務擴張聲明、探索性評論或附帶條件的公告,均不予計入。未經許可的餐廳、仿冒餐廳,或未經 McDonald’s Corporation 授權而使用 McDonald’s 品牌的其他商家,均不符合條件。 結算依據將為 McDonald’s Corporation 或其授權代表的官方聲明;但亦會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
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