- Max Miller 會在 2026年12月31日 前不再擔任美國眾議員嗎？7¢7%
Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) remains in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting his continued candidacy, Republican institutional support, and the absence of any mechanism or announcement forcing an earlier exit. Miller, representing Ohio’s 7th District, rebuffed summer 2026 calls from figures including Sen. Bernie Moreno (his former father-in-law) and Sen. Jon Husted to withdraw amid domestic-abuse allegations from his ex-wife, which he has denied. The withdrawal window closed in August without his cooperation, leaving him as the Republican nominee on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Recent developments show sustained, if measured, GOP backing: Trump has endorsed him publicly, the NRCC has aired ads, and Miller has loaned his campaign substantial funds while releasing new campaign material addressing the allegations. No criminal charges have been filed against Miller, and the race—now rated a toss-up due to the scandal—remains on track for voters to decide. With the election occurring before year-end and no resignation signals or legal barriers to completing his current term (ending January 2027), the consensus centers on continuity through December absent unforeseen developments.
規則
如果 Max Miller 作為美國眾議院議員離任一事在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前正式公布，本市場將判定為「是」。否則將判定為「否」。 當 Max Miller、美國眾議院或其授權代表公開且明確地宣布 Max Miller 已不再或將不再擔任俄亥俄州第七國會選區的美國眾議員時，即視為已宣布離任。無論指定人士何時正式離職，此類公告均符合資格。指定人士辭職、遭免職或以其他方式離職的公告均符合資格。 以下情況不符合公開且明確公布的標準：聲明指出指定人士正在考慮離職或願意離職；有條件的聲明指出指定人士只有在特定條件達成時才會離職；公布一項仍待接受或已遭拒絕、且須經接受才生效的辭職提議；媒體報導指定人士計畫離職；以諷刺或玩笑方式作出的聲明；以及由指定人士、管理該指定職位的相關主管機關或其各自授權代表以外的人士所作出的聲明。 只有明確表示指定人士預計將在公告日期起 18 個月內離職的公告才符合資格（例如，「我會在 2 年後離職」和「我不會永遠任職」均不符合資格）。 指定人士暫時請假、有期限的停職、無限期停職、行政休假，或其在指定職位上的職責出現其他暫時變動，相關公告均不符合資格。 如果指定人士依預先訂定且有預定屆滿日期的任期擔任指定職位，只有宣布其將在任期預定屆滿前離職的公告才符合資格。 如果指定人士在沒有符合條件的公告下，於指定日期前正式不再擔任指定職位，且主要新聞機構在指定日期前確認其離職，本市場將判定為「是」。 本市場的判定依據為 Max Miller 和美國政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信新聞報導所形成的共識。
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