- Maduro 是否所有罪名都成立？35¢35%
Traders assign "No" a 64.5% implied probability in the Maduro guilty of all counts market because the case remains in its early pre-trial phase with significant procedural and substantive hurdles ahead. Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were captured in a U.S. military operation in January 2026 and face charges in Manhattan federal court that now include narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, weapons offenses, and a recently added conspiracy-to-commit-torture count covering alleged repression of political opponents and U.S. citizens. Both have pleaded not guilty, and their defense has moved to dismiss the indictment on sovereign-immunity grounds, arguing the charges stem from official acts; prosecutors counter that the U.S. does not recognize Maduro as head of state and that the current Venezuelan government has not asserted immunity. The trial is set for June 2027, leaving ample time for further motions, possible plea negotiations, evidentiary disputes, or partial acquittals. The expanded indictment increases complexity without resolving core legal challenges, supporting the market's view that conviction on every count is far from assured.
規則
若 Nicolás Maduro 被判定犯下起訴書 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 中的所有罪名，此市場將判定為「是」。205 (AKH)) 截至 2027年12月31日、下午11:59 ET。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場將根據市場建立時法院就 Maduro 起訴案作出的初始裁決判定（https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl）。 若截至結算時間，Nicolás Maduro 未被判定犯下所述起訴書中的所有罪名，此市場將判定為「否」。這包括未進行審判，或未就所有罪名作出有罪判決或由法院接受的認罪答辯等任何結果，例如任何一項罪名獲判無罪、部分定罪、審判無效、陪審團未能達成裁決，或任何一項罪名遭撤銷。 此市場將依據本案作出的初始裁決判定。任何上訴均不會影響此市場的結算。 主要結算依據將是美國法院系統的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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