- Luke Campbell 會在 12月31日 前被捕嗎？3¢3%
Recent allegations against Reform UK mayor Luke Campbell have prompted a police investigation but have not led to an arrest. The Hull and East Yorkshire mayor, a former Olympic boxer, faces claims he showed a female colleague naked and sexualised images of himself in May 2026, with the accuser alleging the incident contributed to her departure from the role. Campbell was interviewed under caution by Humberside Police earlier in October, yet no charges or arrests have occurred as of mid-to-late October. Campbell and Reform UK have firmly denied the claims, describing them as originating from a disgruntled employee in a workplace dispute. The combined authority has confirmed both the police probe and its own internal standards process, which must proceed independently. Given the early investigative stage, the absence of immediate enforcement action, and the contested nature of the allegations, traders assign a high implied probability to no arrest occurring by year-end.
規則
如果 Luke Campbell 在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前遭執法機關逮捕或拘留，此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 在等待法官決定是否核發拘留令期間，暫時羈押於拘留設施也符合條件，前提是其在此期間由執法機關以官方職務身分羈押。 符合條件的逮捕／拘留包括： * 遭執法機關（包括聯邦、州、地方、軍方或國際執法機關）實際拘押。 * 因應逮捕令而自願向執法機關投案。 * 遭拘留後正式辦理登記或相關程序。 * 遭州政府機關上銬並帶往警察局。 * 在律師陪同下前往警察局或法院投案。 * 遭軟禁或電子監控。 以下情況不算逮捕／拘留： * 逮捕令已簽發但未執行。 * 未遭逮捕而接受詢問或訪談。 * 未遭逮捕但被列入起訴書。 此市場判定的主要依據將是逮捕方政府及執法機關的官方資訊；但也可以採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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