- Wang Chung-ming 會贏得下一屆連江縣縣長選舉嗎？74¢74%
- Tsao Erh-yuan 會贏得下一屆連江縣縣長選舉嗎？26¢26%
- Tsao Erh-chang 會贏得下一屆連江縣縣長選舉嗎？<1¢<1%
Wang Chung-ming, the incumbent Kuomintang magistrate, holds a commanding position in the November 28, 2026, Lienchiang County magistrate race, reflected in the market's 74.5% implied probability for his victory. His advantages include party nomination secured in June, established local support in a small offshore county with consistent KMT dominance since direct elections began, and a rematch against independent challenger Tsao Erh-yuan, who previously split the KMT vote in 2022. Tsao Erh-yuan, a former county land administration official running without major party backing, accounts for the remaining significant share at 26%, while other entrants trail far behind. Candidate registration closed in early September with no Democratic Progressive Party nominee, limiting fragmentation risks for the incumbent. No major campaign developments have emerged in recent weeks to alter this consensus ahead of the vote.
規則
台灣地方選舉預定於2026年11月28日舉行。 此市場將根據此次選舉後成為連江縣下一任縣長的候選人來結算。 選舉前任命的臨時、過渡或代理縣長將不予考慮。 如果截至 2027年6月30日 下午11:59 ET，此次選舉結果仍未公布，或尚未選出任何候選人，本市場將以「其他」結算。 本市場將依據可信報導的共識所顯示的選舉結果結算。如有歧義，本市場將僅依據台灣政府公布的官方結果結算，具體而言是中央選舉委員會（https://db.cec.gov.tw/）公布的結果。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。