- Le Pen 會在法國總統大選前佩戴電子腳鐐嗎？10¢10%
Marine Le Pen's July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened her public-office ban to 15 months already served, preserving eligibility for the 2027 presidential race while imposing one year of home detention with electronic monitoring. She promptly appealed to the Court of Cassation, whose filing automatically suspends enforcement of the ankle-monitor sentence pending final review. The supreme court has scheduled proceedings with an expected decision before the April 2027 first round, and Le Pen has publicly committed to campaigning without restrictions during this period. No enforcement actions or new judicial rulings have altered this timeline as of mid-October 2026. Trader consensus on the "no" outcome at 90.5% reflects the suspension mechanism, procedural delays typical in French cassation appeals, and the absence of immediate sentence-execution steps that would force monitoring before the election.
規則
若 Marine Le Pen 在市場建立至 2027年4月17日 期間的任何時間（巴黎時間 下午11:59），佩戴法院命令或依法強制佩戴的電子監控裝置，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 本市場僅根據 Marine Le Pen 是否在指定期間內實際佩戴法院命令或依法強制佩戴的電子監控裝置來判定，不論是否有待審或未來的上訴、尚未執行的刑罰、其參選資格或候選人身分的變更，或其他法律程序或手續。 健身追蹤裝置、智慧手錶或其他類似的消費級穿戴式科技產品均不符合資格。短暫試戴、測試、展示電子監控裝置，或以其他非強制方式使用該裝置，均不符合資格；除非 Le Pen 是依據法院或其他具備管轄權的法律機關所施加的有效電子監控措施而佩戴該裝置。 此市場結算的主要依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。