- Guy Cormier 會贏得 2026 年 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 補選嗎？94¢94%
- Zumretay Arkin 會贏得 2026 年 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 補選嗎？3¢3%
- Nimâ Machouf 會贏得 2026 年 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 補選嗎？3¢3%
- Mathieu Fournier 會贏得 2026 年 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 補選嗎？3¢3%
Guy Cormier’s selection as the Liberal candidate in the December 7, 2026 by-election for the Laurier—Sainte-Marie riding has driven the market’s strong consensus. The Montreal seat has been held by Liberals since 2015, with the party securing over 51 percent in the 2025 general election despite the resignation of former MP Steven Guilbeault. Cormier, former Desjardins Group CEO, brings significant business and community profile in Quebec and was announced in late October 2026. Forecasts project the Liberals well ahead of the NDP’s Nimâ Machouf, the Bloc Québécois’s Zumretay Arkin, and other contenders, consistent with historical patterns in the riding. A late shift in Quebec voter sentiment or unusually low turnout could narrow margins, though current evidence points to limited scope for such changes before voting.
規則
加拿大聯邦選區 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 的補選目前預定於 2026年12月7日 舉行。 此市場將根據贏得 2026 年 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 補選的候選人進行結算。 如果截至 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 尚未確切得知選舉結果，此市場將結算為「其他」。 此市場的結算來源將是可信報導的共識。如有任何疑義，此市場將僅根據 Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/) 公布的官方選舉結果進行結算。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。