- 到 2026年12月31日 前，Lai Ching-te 會不再擔任台灣總統嗎？5¢5%
Lai Ching-te remains firmly in office as Taiwan’s president through his term ending in 2028, with no viable path to removal by year-end 2026 driving the 93.5% trader consensus against early departure. His October 2026 National Day address emphasized domestic economic relief, defense investments to deter conflict, and openness to U.S.-China dialogue while rejecting subordination, reflecting continued active governance without signs of resignation, health concerns, or successful legislative action. Opposition parties hold insufficient seats for impeachment thresholds, and ongoing constitutional disputes over budgets and legislation have produced deadlock rather than ouster proceedings. Recent focus on tariffs, AI policy, and international ties further signals stability, consistent with historical patterns where presidents complete terms absent extraordinary events.
規則
如果 Lai Ching-te 在市場建立至指定日期（ET）之間的任何一段時間不再擔任台灣總統，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 若在此市場結束日期之前宣布 Lai Ching-te 辭職或遭免職，此市場將立即判定為「是」，無論宣布的辭職或免職何時生效。 如果指定人士遭到拘留、實際上被撤離指定職位，或在本市場的時間範圍內以其他方式被永久阻止履行指定職位的職責，則符合結算為「是」的條件。 此市場的判定依據將是 Lai Ching-te 和台灣政府的官方資訊；不過，也可以採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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