- Chen Yu-jen 會贏得下一屆金門縣縣長選舉嗎？97¢97%
- Liang Wen-tao 會贏得下一屆金門縣縣長選舉嗎？2¢2%
- Li Wen-liang 會贏得下一屆金門縣縣長選舉嗎？2¢2%
- Yang Cheng-wu 會贏得下一屆金門縣縣長選舉嗎？<1¢<1%
Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang legislator and party’s sole nominee for Kinmen County magistrate, holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the market ahead of the November 28 election. Recent polling reinforces this position, with a September KMT-commissioned survey showing her at 45.4% support—more than 34 points ahead of the nearest rival, former deputy magistrate Li Wen-liang—while a mid-October street poll indicated overwhelming preference. Party consolidation strengthened her standing when former magistrate Yang Cheng-wu withdrew in early September to avoid splitting the vote. The fragmented field of independent candidates has produced no coordinated challenge, leaving her path to victory through established KMT networks and local organizational strength. A reversal would require an unforeseen late development, such as a significant scandal or abrupt shift among undecided voters, to alter the current consensus.
規則
台灣地方選舉預定於2026年11月28日舉行。 本市場將根據此次選舉結果而成為金門縣下一任縣長的候選人來結算。 選舉前任命的臨時、過渡或代理縣長將不予考慮。 如果截至 2027年6月30日 下午11:59 ET，此次選舉結果仍未公布，或尚未選出任何候選人，本市場將以「其他」結算。 本市場將依據可信報導的共識所顯示的選舉結果結算。如有歧義，本市場將僅依據台灣政府公布的官方結果結算，具體而言是中央選舉委員會（https://db.cec.gov.tw/）公布的結果。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。