- Kim Jong Un 會在 2026 年訪問美國嗎？1¢1%
Trader consensus on a low probability for Kim Jong Un visiting the United States in 2026 stems from the absence of any announced plans, diplomatic signals, or preparatory steps for such a trip. Recent North Korean actions, including missile tests and a defense museum display of ICBMs capable of reaching the US mainland, coincide with President Trump's comments signaling possible talks during his November Asia itinerary for the APEC summit in China. Past summits occurred in neutral or regional locations, and longstanding security, logistical, and political barriers make a US visit improbable without prior major concessions on denuclearization. A late-year breakthrough enabling a Washington meeting remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence in current bilateral dynamics.
規則
如果北韓最高領導人 Kim Jong Un 在市場建立後至 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 之間訪問美國，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 就此市場而言，「訪問」是指 Kim Jong Un 親自進入美國的陸地或海上領土。在此市場的時間範圍內，Kim Jong Un 是否進入美國領空，均不影響市場判定為正面結果。就本市場而言，美國領土不包括原本不在美國主權領土範圍內的軍事基地或外交機構駐地。 此市場的主要判定依據為美國或北韓的官方資訊；此外，也會參考可信報導的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。